Sunday, December 26, 2010

A pleasant crisis

Everywhere you go these days in Bulgaria you hear about the crisis. People avoid celebrating the holidays in restaurants and they make jokes about how santa claus is coping with the crisis. In the weekly Kapital writers take a glance at 2011. An optimist argues that the bottom is reached, while a pessimist argue that the crisis will continue throughout an unknown future.


True enough, Bulgaria has been affected by the international financial turmoil. Unemployment have risen, and remains uncomfortably high even after the country returned to GDP growth earlier this year. Bulgarian companies are cautious about investing, and many Bulgarians are forced to cut down expenses. But I am still a little curious about the strong feeling of crisis.
Bulgarian unemployment 2000 - 2010


Data from Eurostat


There are hardly any Bulgarian now who does not remember times that were rougher than this. Much rougher. After all, the current unemplyment levels are hardly higher than they were in 2006, when the country was booming. The crisis in Bulgaria is nothing compared to its neighbours Romania and Greece, or even in the Irish tiger economy. Wouldn't the correct emotional response be "thanks god we live in Bulgaria and not in Greece or Ireland"?


Such a response would probably demand a massive mental change in a country that by and large sees itself as a poor corner of Europe. But the sense of crisis probably is probably well founded. One reason is that unemployment in Bulgaria is still a very diferent reality in than what it is in the west.Another is the massive mistrust against politicians. When the world is shaking, Bulgarians wisely enough do not trust their own politicians to do what not even Obama has been able to do - turn the economy around. The statistics might look promising now, but they can be replaced with bad surprises any day. In the Kapital article mentioned above, the pessimist first of all mentioned the risk that misdirected populism causes havoc in the Bulgarian economy with increased spenditure, taxes and borrowing. Few will object against that.


Maybe more striking than fear of the future in this article was the pride with wich Kapitals economical writers discussed this subject. They have always loved to discuss fundamental economical issues rather than business news (which makes the paper readable), and it is as if they enjoy having found a topic both worthy of discussion and relevant for Bulgarian everyday life.


This crisis is not the kind of crisis that empty people's stomachs, but it is historical news. For the first time in a very long time, Bulgaria is so integrated in the western hemisphere, that her economical development is more dependent on what happens in Brussels and New York, than on decicions by maverick Balkan politicians. The fact that Bulgaria is in a moderate state of crisis like all other European countries hint at something that many Bulgarians have been waiting for: she is finally becoming just a normal country.


(Which by the way, The Economist realized before me... )

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